Graph: CCTV
Scramble for the Durian Market in China
Oct 23, 2022
On September 19th, the first durian cargo arrived from Dak Lak to Ping Xiang (凭祥).
Vietnam became the second country on the official permission list to export fresh durian
to China. How would this challenge the dominant position of Thailand? Prof. Dr. Tang
Zhimin, Director of CASPIM, updates the current scramble for the durian market in his
forthcoming book entitled “Fruit That Will Last: Thai Fruit Export to China”.
China, the largest market of durian in the world, imported 822,000 tons of the fruit in
2021, mostly from Thailand, the largest producer on earth which churned out more than 1
million tons a year in the past. Thai farmers benefit from the large and growing market:
durian export to China took off in 2003 when FTA was stablished between the two
countries, and Thailand is the only country on the permission list for fresh durian until this
year. (Table 1).
Vietnam used to sell durian to China through unofficial border trade or in the name of
Thai produce. Its major varieties are MonThong and Ri6 (Figure 1). Its advantages over
Thailand are shorter transportation route to China (around 36 hours vs three/four days)
and lower production costs. Its price in Chinese market is less than 50% of that of
Thailand in 2021.
This year, however, Thailand may not feel the pressure from Vietnam: firstly, only 51
orchards in Vietnam (compared with more than 55,000 in Thailand), received export
permission. That translates to 18,000 out of around 600,000 tons of total capacity.
Secondly, almost no price difference: durian from both countries are sold around ¥1,000
per box (฿330/kg) in the whole sale market in Guangzhou (⼴州) in September, thanks to
less quality and quantity of the Thai produce at the end of its season.
Malaysia, the other competitor, gained the export permission for frozen durian puree and
meat in 2011 and frozen whole durian in 2019. Its major varieties are Musang King and
Black Thorn (Figure 2). The two varieties are positioned for the higher end market of
“connoisseur”. In 2022 the price of Musang King is ฿600/kg-฿700/kg, more than three
times of MonThong of Thailand. The limitation for the country is also the export capacity:
Malaysia is the biggest country for durian consumption in the world. The domestic market
devours most of its output. Out of its total output of about 0.4 million tons, only 20,000
tons are earmarked for China.
The other foreseeable competitions are Cambodia, the Laos and China itself. The
capacity of Cambodia is about 37,000 tons. The Laos attracted investors from Vietnam
and China recently for durian plantation. One Chinese company announced its plan to
build a durian orchard of nearly 17,000 rai in Attapeu. Hainan (海南) province in China
flaunted its success in commercialization of durian production in 2022. It may deliver
45,000 to 75,000 tons by 2024-2025.
Despite of the zero Covid policy in China this year, Thailand did well in its durian export
to China. The export volume is 632,499 tons in the first seven months in 2022 compared
with 586,298 tons of the same period in 2021. However, the latest data show the growth
momentum dropped in August, the export volume of the first eight months is 686,553
tons in 2022, less than 716,555 tons in 2021.
The Chinese market for durian is not saturated yet, as some speculated the market may
reach its peak at 1.3 to 1.5 million tons. However, the growth of demand may not catch
the growth of supply as more durian orchards (from Thailand as well as its neighbors)
enter the market. Product innovation and better quality control may be the solutions for
Thailand to meet the challenge in the scramble for the durian market in China. Thai
exporters may explore the liquid nitrogen frozen, ripe-on-tree segment, and government
should continue to implement rigorously policies to eradicate premature harvest.
Table 1: Durian Exporters to China
