China celebrated its 73 years birthday on October 1. A few weeks later, Xi Jinping is likely
to continue his third term as the General Secretary of the CPC in the Party’s 20th
Congress. China today faces very different internal and external settings compared with
10 years ago when Xi took over the rudder. How would China fare in “the great changes
unseen in a century”? Prof. Dr. Tang Zhimin, the Director of CASPIM, shared his views
during the 14th China ASEAN Think Tank Strategic Dialogue Forum in Nanning, a side
forum of the recent China ASEAN Expo:
What the world may turn out to be in the next decades may depend on four crucial
assumptions: 1) Relative strength of China and the USA; 2) Success of decoupling and
sanctions led by the USA; 3) Urgency of the compelling global agenda and 4) Mindset of
the younger generations.
It may be too early to pick the winner of the intensifying China-USA rivalry. But what the
China watchers should not underestimate is the resilience of China’s polity and economy.
The China’s economy may face a dreadful future of being excluded from the international
trade and financial system, supply chain and technology network. However, the strategy
of decoupling or sanctions of the Biden’s administration may also hit a snag when more
US allies realize the loss they would bear or business interest groups overwhelm the
strategists in the White House.
China may even win more friends with its vision of a “Community with a Shared Future”,
which appeals to the compelling global agenda such as climate changes, cyber security
and safety of bio-technology. Last but not least, it is the mindset of the born global
younger generations: would they embrace a connected world with more freedom and
opportunities?
The new international order emerged from the “the great changes unseen in a century”
may be built on new rules for sustainable and inclusive development, forged by new
forces and institutions to displace American hegemony. This might be a blessing for
China and the rest of the world.
The CPC’s 20th Congress may show how the Party may adjust itself as it did in numerous
reforms in the past: be it the policy against Covid 19, or in a longer term, a political
agenda with better protection of basic rights of the citizens and rule of law, the pain
points so acutely felt by the middle class during the recent draconian zero Covid regime.
Under a more conducive political environment, China may play the cards to its
advantages: the most comprehensive supply chain and one of the largest markets on
earth; and innovation capability epitomized by its recent achievements in space station
and new energy automobiles.