September 8th, 2021
China is now facing an increasingly hostile media in USA. What are the views of leading
pundits on China in USA and UK? Prof. Dr. Tang Zhimin, director of CASPIM, reviews five
new books published by first echelon press houses this year and one leading article in the
the Economist magazine:
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) celebrated its 100 year anniversary on July 1st this year.
What makes it possible to rise to power against incredible odds, remains in command
while other red powers collapsed, leading a nation undergone an extraordinary
transformation from an undeveloped and insular country to a comprehensive world
power? Tony Saich, Daewoo Professor of International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy
School shows in his book From Rebel to Ruler that the party owes its endurance to its
flexibility and adaptability. Or as Bruce Dickson, Professor of Political Science and
International Affairs at the George Washington University’s Elliot School of International
Affairs illuminates in his book The Party and the People, the party adopts a dual approach
of responsiveness and repression: responsiveness when confronting localized economic
or social unrest; and repression when dealing with existential, political threats or
challenges to its authority. The book sheds new light on how the relationship between the
Chinese state and its citizens shapes governance.
The legacy of the party may be secure, but its future is anything but guaranteed. Joseph
Fewsmith, Professor of International Relations and Political Science at the Boston
University argues in his book Rethinking Chinese Politics that in all Leninist systems,
political power is difficult to pass on from one leader to the next. Indeed, each new leader
must deploy whatever resources he has to gain control over critical positions, stage for
intense and sometimes violent intra-elite struggles. Renowned Sinologist David
Shambaugh, director of the China Policy Program at the Elliott School of International
Affairs, George Washington University, suggests in his book China’s Leaders: From Mao
to Now, that persona, formative socialization, psychology, and professional experiences
of each leader shaped China domestically and internationally: Mao was a populist tyrant,
Deng a pragmatic Leninist, Jiang a bureaucratic politician, Hu a technocratic apparatchik.
Shambaugh portraits Xi, the current leader, as a modern emperor: “all-powerful, regal,
respected, feared, sycophantically revered”. Roger Garside, a long-time diplomat and
development banker goes further in his book, China Coup: The Great Leap to Freedom, in
speculating Xi will very soon be removed from office in a coup d’état mounted by rivals in
the top leadership. However, their will and capacity to do so depend crucially on how
USA and its allies under the leadership of Biden may act in creating the conditions in
which Xi’s rivals move against him.
President Biden’s “New China Doctrine” is criticized by a leading article in a July issue of
the Economist. While acknowledging many countries are alarmed by China’s “wolf
warrior” diplomacy, the article points out three problems of Biden’s China doctrine: Firstly,
by presenting a zero-sum contest between democracy and autocracy, rather than the
search for coexistence, he is over-estimating America’s influence and underestimating
how much potential allies have to lose by turning their back on China. Secondly, the best
chance to win allies is for USA to demonstrate that it can be the leader of a successful
and open world economy, instead of practicing soft protectionism. Thirdly, the allies are
even more wary if the purpose of cutting ties with China is to create good union jobs in
America.
Books & Articles Quoted:
Dickson, Bruce J. 2021: The Party and the People: Chinese Politics in the 21st Century. Princeton University
Press, USA.
Economist. 2021: Biden’s New China Doctrine. Economist, July 17th, 2021, UK
Fewsmith, Joseph 2021: Rethinking Chinese Politics. Cambridge University Press, UK.
Garside, Roger 2021: China Coup: The Great Leap to Freedom. University of California Press, USA.
Saich, Tony 2021: From Rebel to Ruler: One Hundred Years of the Chinese Communist Party. Harvard
University Press, USA.
Shambaugh, David 2021: China’s Leaders: From Mao to Now. Polity, USA.