In his interview by Xin Hua News Agency on January 13th, Prof. Dr. Tang, Director of CASPIM
assess the second wave of Covid-19 in Thailand, its impacts on the future of Thai economy, and
related policy of the government.
By observing the chart of new confirmed case of Covid-19 in Thailand (see chart above), one may
spot an abrupt spike on December 19, 2020. The number jumped up to 576 from 34 on the
previous day. It is the result of testing 1192 related persons by the health authority after one local
infection was reported in the seafood market of Samut Sakhon province. This test alone identified
516 confirmed cases, mostly asymptomatic carriers.
The number of new confirmed case fluctuates dramatically in the days of the so called “second
wave”. There is a peak of 809 cases on December 21 as well as zero case on December 20, 22,
30, and January 8. It is around the range of 200-500 on other days. Obviously, the number is
highly correlated to the frequency of the test by the government, and may not represent the actual
trend and severity of the epidemic. The more reliable indicators are death and death ratio: by
January 12, 2021, the accumulated mortality of Covid 19 is 67 person in Thailand, ranked 146
among 190 countries in the world. The mortality ratio is 0.6%, far below the world average of 2%,
or 5% in China and 1.7% in USA.
The assessment is Thailand is doing a good job so far in containing the virus, thanks to the active
government involvement and excellent action in concert of the public by wearing mask and keep
social distancing. We may not even jump to the conclusion that the second wave is necessary
severer by comparing with the peak of 188 confirmed cases on March 22, as the scale of testing
may not be comparable between the first and second wave.
The Covid 19 pandemic impacts Thai economy in tourism, export, disruption of logistic and lock
down policy of government. It is worth noting that the government is much more cautious to
impose a nation wide lock down during this second wave. Tourism has touched bottom at the
moment. In selected market such as China export recovered and disruption of logistic alleviated.
We may estimate the economy in 2021 may not be worth than of 2020, based on the assumption
that Thailand may maintain contain the epidemic at the current level. This is inline with the recent
forecast by BOT that the Thai economy may expand by 3.2% in 2021 compared with an
contraction by 6.6% in 2020.